POWERSWEEP
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Joe Flacco is getting a lot of buzz for being the 1st rookie to win 2 playoff games. On the positive side he hasn’t committed any TO’s vs MIA or TEN which has kept the defense out of bad spots & while he has a 6.6 ypa the Ravens have let him test defenses down field. On the negative side he’s only passed for 296 yds total in both playoff games with a 44% comp rate. The Ravens defense has bent but not broken in the 2 playoff games being outgained 667-497 but BAL is +7 TO’s holding foes to 13 or less in 7 of 8 games. The dog is 6-2 ATS between these division foes. PIT won the 1st meeting 23-20 in OT on MNF but didn’t cover as a 6 pt HF. They went to BAL & won 13-9 as a 3 pt AD. BAL was up 9-3 after 3Q but PIT had drives of 54 & 92 yds to steal the game finishing with a 311-202 yd edge. Flacco avg’d 154 ypg (46%) with a 1-2 ratio vs PIT TY while Roethlisberger has avg’d 199 ypg (58%) with a 14-9 ratio vs BAL going 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS. PIT is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home outgaining foes 316-242 (+2 TO’s) with a 24-15 avg score. The Ravens are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS on the road TY with a 323-306 yd edge (+9 TO’s) & 25-18 avg score. BAL did sustain a pair of key inj’s LW as DE/OLB Suggs has a separated shoulder but is likely to play in a harness. CB Rolle (groin) is very ? and the Ravens could be down to their #3 & #4 CB’s here. Harbaugh is 2-0 ATS as a playoff coach while Tomlin is 2-0 ATS & both have outstanding assistant coaches.
The Ravens surprised many by this playoff appearance but if you check out the Preseason Issue of Power Sweep you’ll see that we projected them as a playoff team. The season started with a pair of easy wins vs CIN & CLE then 3 str losses to playoff bound PIT, TEN & IND. Flacco avg’d 169 ypg (63%) with a 1-7 ratio but he was named the starter as Cameron was impressed by his intangibles. BAL then won 7 of the next 8 with the only loss being a trip to the NYG. Over the rest of the year Flacco avg’d 193 ypg (59%) with a 13-5 ratio. One concern is a comp % which has dropped from 67% in Oct to 59% in Nov & 47% in Dec. The OL was a concern coming into the season & while only being avg in talent they were well coached & exceeded expectations. It is RB by committee as McClain leads the team as McGahee & Rice were bothered by inj’s. Flacco quickly made Mason his go to guy catching the go ahead TD vs DAL with just 1 arm. Clayton is the deep threat avg 17.0 ypc. TE Heap’s numbers dropped as he was kept in to help the OL. As you might expect with a rookie QB there are many checkdowns & the 3 RB’s combined for 74 rec. If you think of BAL you think of defense & that was certainly what got them here. BAL finished with the #2 D & the #3 scoring D. They held 11 foes to 13 or less & the NYG are the only tm which gained over 92 yds rush. The 3-4 D has an elite front 7 with NT Ngata becoming a top 5 NT in the NFL. LB Lewis reinvented himself TY remaining the def leader while both Suggs & Scott are playing at a PB level. Reed is again making big plays in the secondary with 9 int & Rolle bounced back from a bad ‘07. BAL our #23 ST’s as they haven’t gotten much out of the return units TY.
While Roethlisberger sustained a concussion vs CLE in the season finale he showed no ill effects for the #22 offense. The OL has taken quite a bit of heat for its sack total (29th) as Roethlisberger’s 80.1 QBR was 24th in the NFL. He finished was 21st in comp% & tied for 28th in int due to hurrying his pass att’s. While Willie Parker led the team in rushing for the 4th consec year he missed 5 reg ssn games due to injury. He finished with 4 games of 100+ yds & PIT is 22-3 SU when he rushes for 100. Mewelde Moore is a solid #2 RB that has proven that he can start for short periods & his 40 rec (8.0) backs up his versatility. Hines Ward had his best year since 2004 with 81 rec (tied 14th) remaining one of the most reliable WR’s in the NFL & is a widely respected blocker. Holmes has fully developed into a #2 WR with deep threat potential while ***** Miller is an underrated receiving TE. PIT was just short of leading the NFL in all 4 major defensive categories TY. They finished 1st in total defense (237 ypg), pass def (157 ypg), scoring def (13.9) & 2nd in rush def (80.3). PIT’s 2,511 passing yds allowed are the 3rd fewest since 1978. PIT has held foes to 300 yds or less in 15 games TY & only allowed 29 pts total in the 3Q. Their 55 sacks (2nd) were 2nd best in team history as LB’s Harrison & Woodley combined for 27.5. PIT’s defensive 5.4 ypa is the best of the 12 playoff teams & they have a 15-20 ratio with Polamalu leading with 7 int. The Steelers have our #16 special teams unit as while they have good coverage units the return units are weak with just 6.2 on PR’s (31st) & 19.1 on KR’s (29th).
We cashed with the Steelers as a 3H Winner in Wk 17 vs Cleveland & LW as a 4H vs San Diego. We’ll ride them again in this defensive matchup between the NFL’s top 2 stop units. Home field will truly be an edge with the Ravens on the road for a 3rd straight week & being physically drained after a battle with TEN. BAL has scored because of the field position their D has put them in but PIT is the only team they can match up with that has a better defense. Huge edges in QB experience and home field allow the Steelers to punch their Super Bowl ticket & the injuries to Suggs & CB Rolle could be key.
[FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow][FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow]FORECAST: PITTSBURGH BY 13 RATING: 3*
Philadelphia @ Arizona
The Cardinals made franchise history last week as it was the 1st time they ever won 2 playoff games in the same season. For the 2nd week in a row ARZ got out to an early lead which took the run gm away from their foes & allowed their smaller DL to focus on the pass rush. The defense has 9 takeaways the L2W & the offense has converted an astounding 16 of 33 FD’s (48%) as well. PHI has reached the NFC Championship game for the 5th time in 8 years (1-3 ATS). Their defense has been key as they rattled QB Jackson vs MIN & slowed NYG run game down enough to put the pressure on Manning. In PHI’s L5 games they are allowing 173 ypg passing (49%) with an 0-5 ratio. In the 1st meeting TY PHI got a huge "get right win" which turned their season around beating ARZ 48-20 win (-3) on Thanksgiving. PHI had a gift fall into their lap with a warm weather dome team on a short week that just faced the Giants now forced to fly cross country & playing in 40˚ weather. The Eagles scored on 8 of their first 11 drives & finished the game with 32-12 FD & 437-260 yd edges. PHI converted a whopping 10 of 15 3rd Dns & had a 19:06 TOP edge. PHI is 5-4-1 SU & 6-4 ATS on the road TY outgaining foes 331-277 (-4 TO’s) with a 22-20 avg score. ARZ went 7-2 SU & 8-3 ATS at home TY & if the MIN game is discarded (team celebrating its NFC West Title) the Cardinals outgained foes 374-305 (+8 TO’s) with a 32-21 avg score. PHI is 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS vs foes with a winning record TY with a 27-21 avg score. ARZ has gone 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS (8-1 O/U) vs foes with a winning record TY being outscored 26-30 on avg. ARZ HC Whisenhunt is now 2-0 ATS in the playoffs while Reid is 6-1 ATS on the road in the postseason.
The core of the PHI offense remains Donovan McNabb & Brian Westbrook & both went through a trying year. McNabb was benched vs BAL after getting nothing done vs the Ravens #2 D in the 1H. Since then he’s avg’d 238 ypg (63%) with an 11-4 ratio and is 6-1 SU/ATS. Westbrook has been dealing with inj’s & a year after six 100 yd rushing gms he has just 3. PHI’s offense has been boosted by a better receiving unit & 6 players have 30+ rec. Rookie DeSean Jackson leads the team in rec & rec yds & is potent on special teams. Westbrook is 2nd on the team in rec’s as Reid is the most pass dependant coach in the NFL. LY PHI’s offense struggled without TE LJ Smith as he split coverage in the middle of the field. Baskett is the possession WR & Curtis is a speed threat but he missed half the season with inj. PHI’s OL is better suited to pass blocking (27 sks all’d) but the OT’s are very long in the tooth. PHI lost RG Jean-Giles & has been working with Nick Cole the L6W but he has 8 career starts. PHI has been weak at the POA in short ydg situations (ie goal line vs CHI). PHI’s DL has great chemistry starting all 16 TY holding 11 tms to under 88 yds rush (3.0) though they did give up 200+ yds to WAS & NYG. DC Johnson believes in bringing pressure from everywhere & 15 players have at least 1 sk. PHI’s LB’s are fast & flow to the ball well. PHI invested heavily in CB Samuel to give them a very deep secondary & teams have comp just 53% of their passes with a 6.1 ypa with a 19-17 ratio. PHI has our #18 spec tms as DeSean Jackson has cooled a bit after a strong start & David Akers has cost them in several games.
ARZ is a very one dimensional offense relying on Warner to quickly get into a rhythm & set the tempo. He has seven 300 yd passing games and 3 WR’s that have 1,000 yds. Warner has had trouble with physical D’s going 3-7 SU & 2-7-1 ATS as they disrupt the timing of the WR routes. Boldin (missed LW, CS) & Fitzgerald are the best WR tandem with Breaston breaking out as the slot WR. However, the rushing game has been anemic avg just 74 ypg (3.5) & has been held to under 100 yds in 11 games. ARZ benched RB James due to poor production & went with Tim Hightower in the 2H of the year but minus his 109 yd (5.0) game vs STL he has just 290 yds (2.4) on the yr. ARZ has started the same OL for all 16 gms & while they are 11th in sks all’d much of that is due to ARZ’s longer routes. The TE’s are a virtual non-factor in the ARZ system. DC Clancy Pendergast heads up a scheme oriented unit that gave up 414 yds offense in its 4 games prior to SEA. ARZ runs a hybrid 4-3/3-4 system & none of the 3 true DL started all 16 TY. After tallying 21 sks the first 8 ARZ had just 10 over the final 8 partially due to DE LaBoy missing most of the 2H of the season. ARZ has an active LB unit but the run defense slipped in the 4 games prior to SEA allowing 173 yds (4.6). ARZ has also given up the most passing TD’s in the NFL with a 39-20 ratio. ARZ does have a great safety tandem with FS Rolle & SS Wilson but the CB spot is suspect at best. Despite sending Sean Morey to the Pro Bowl TY the Cardinals have our #31 special teams as P Ben Graham has a putrid 32.0 net giving up 13.1 on PR’s.
Philly’s defense has impressed but on the season the only true passing teams they’ve taken on have been DAL (twice) and this ARZ squad on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals went Over in their 1st playoff gm and both teams left numerous points off LW in what should’ve been easy "Over" winners. PHI will also be able to move the ball in these ideal conditions under the playoff experience and leadership of McNabb and Westbrook.
[FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow][FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow]FORECAST: Cardinals/Eagles OVER 48 RATING: 1*
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Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Joe Flacco is getting a lot of buzz for being the 1st rookie to win 2 playoff games. On the positive side he hasn’t committed any TO’s vs MIA or TEN which has kept the defense out of bad spots & while he has a 6.6 ypa the Ravens have let him test defenses down field. On the negative side he’s only passed for 296 yds total in both playoff games with a 44% comp rate. The Ravens defense has bent but not broken in the 2 playoff games being outgained 667-497 but BAL is +7 TO’s holding foes to 13 or less in 7 of 8 games. The dog is 6-2 ATS between these division foes. PIT won the 1st meeting 23-20 in OT on MNF but didn’t cover as a 6 pt HF. They went to BAL & won 13-9 as a 3 pt AD. BAL was up 9-3 after 3Q but PIT had drives of 54 & 92 yds to steal the game finishing with a 311-202 yd edge. Flacco avg’d 154 ypg (46%) with a 1-2 ratio vs PIT TY while Roethlisberger has avg’d 199 ypg (58%) with a 14-9 ratio vs BAL going 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS. PIT is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home outgaining foes 316-242 (+2 TO’s) with a 24-15 avg score. The Ravens are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS on the road TY with a 323-306 yd edge (+9 TO’s) & 25-18 avg score. BAL did sustain a pair of key inj’s LW as DE/OLB Suggs has a separated shoulder but is likely to play in a harness. CB Rolle (groin) is very ? and the Ravens could be down to their #3 & #4 CB’s here. Harbaugh is 2-0 ATS as a playoff coach while Tomlin is 2-0 ATS & both have outstanding assistant coaches.
The Ravens surprised many by this playoff appearance but if you check out the Preseason Issue of Power Sweep you’ll see that we projected them as a playoff team. The season started with a pair of easy wins vs CIN & CLE then 3 str losses to playoff bound PIT, TEN & IND. Flacco avg’d 169 ypg (63%) with a 1-7 ratio but he was named the starter as Cameron was impressed by his intangibles. BAL then won 7 of the next 8 with the only loss being a trip to the NYG. Over the rest of the year Flacco avg’d 193 ypg (59%) with a 13-5 ratio. One concern is a comp % which has dropped from 67% in Oct to 59% in Nov & 47% in Dec. The OL was a concern coming into the season & while only being avg in talent they were well coached & exceeded expectations. It is RB by committee as McClain leads the team as McGahee & Rice were bothered by inj’s. Flacco quickly made Mason his go to guy catching the go ahead TD vs DAL with just 1 arm. Clayton is the deep threat avg 17.0 ypc. TE Heap’s numbers dropped as he was kept in to help the OL. As you might expect with a rookie QB there are many checkdowns & the 3 RB’s combined for 74 rec. If you think of BAL you think of defense & that was certainly what got them here. BAL finished with the #2 D & the #3 scoring D. They held 11 foes to 13 or less & the NYG are the only tm which gained over 92 yds rush. The 3-4 D has an elite front 7 with NT Ngata becoming a top 5 NT in the NFL. LB Lewis reinvented himself TY remaining the def leader while both Suggs & Scott are playing at a PB level. Reed is again making big plays in the secondary with 9 int & Rolle bounced back from a bad ‘07. BAL our #23 ST’s as they haven’t gotten much out of the return units TY.
While Roethlisberger sustained a concussion vs CLE in the season finale he showed no ill effects for the #22 offense. The OL has taken quite a bit of heat for its sack total (29th) as Roethlisberger’s 80.1 QBR was 24th in the NFL. He finished was 21st in comp% & tied for 28th in int due to hurrying his pass att’s. While Willie Parker led the team in rushing for the 4th consec year he missed 5 reg ssn games due to injury. He finished with 4 games of 100+ yds & PIT is 22-3 SU when he rushes for 100. Mewelde Moore is a solid #2 RB that has proven that he can start for short periods & his 40 rec (8.0) backs up his versatility. Hines Ward had his best year since 2004 with 81 rec (tied 14th) remaining one of the most reliable WR’s in the NFL & is a widely respected blocker. Holmes has fully developed into a #2 WR with deep threat potential while ***** Miller is an underrated receiving TE. PIT was just short of leading the NFL in all 4 major defensive categories TY. They finished 1st in total defense (237 ypg), pass def (157 ypg), scoring def (13.9) & 2nd in rush def (80.3). PIT’s 2,511 passing yds allowed are the 3rd fewest since 1978. PIT has held foes to 300 yds or less in 15 games TY & only allowed 29 pts total in the 3Q. Their 55 sacks (2nd) were 2nd best in team history as LB’s Harrison & Woodley combined for 27.5. PIT’s defensive 5.4 ypa is the best of the 12 playoff teams & they have a 15-20 ratio with Polamalu leading with 7 int. The Steelers have our #16 special teams unit as while they have good coverage units the return units are weak with just 6.2 on PR’s (31st) & 19.1 on KR’s (29th).
We cashed with the Steelers as a 3H Winner in Wk 17 vs Cleveland & LW as a 4H vs San Diego. We’ll ride them again in this defensive matchup between the NFL’s top 2 stop units. Home field will truly be an edge with the Ravens on the road for a 3rd straight week & being physically drained after a battle with TEN. BAL has scored because of the field position their D has put them in but PIT is the only team they can match up with that has a better defense. Huge edges in QB experience and home field allow the Steelers to punch their Super Bowl ticket & the injuries to Suggs & CB Rolle could be key.
[FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow][FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow]FORECAST: PITTSBURGH BY 13 RATING: 3*
Philadelphia @ Arizona
The Cardinals made franchise history last week as it was the 1st time they ever won 2 playoff games in the same season. For the 2nd week in a row ARZ got out to an early lead which took the run gm away from their foes & allowed their smaller DL to focus on the pass rush. The defense has 9 takeaways the L2W & the offense has converted an astounding 16 of 33 FD’s (48%) as well. PHI has reached the NFC Championship game for the 5th time in 8 years (1-3 ATS). Their defense has been key as they rattled QB Jackson vs MIN & slowed NYG run game down enough to put the pressure on Manning. In PHI’s L5 games they are allowing 173 ypg passing (49%) with an 0-5 ratio. In the 1st meeting TY PHI got a huge "get right win" which turned their season around beating ARZ 48-20 win (-3) on Thanksgiving. PHI had a gift fall into their lap with a warm weather dome team on a short week that just faced the Giants now forced to fly cross country & playing in 40˚ weather. The Eagles scored on 8 of their first 11 drives & finished the game with 32-12 FD & 437-260 yd edges. PHI converted a whopping 10 of 15 3rd Dns & had a 19:06 TOP edge. PHI is 5-4-1 SU & 6-4 ATS on the road TY outgaining foes 331-277 (-4 TO’s) with a 22-20 avg score. ARZ went 7-2 SU & 8-3 ATS at home TY & if the MIN game is discarded (team celebrating its NFC West Title) the Cardinals outgained foes 374-305 (+8 TO’s) with a 32-21 avg score. PHI is 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS vs foes with a winning record TY with a 27-21 avg score. ARZ has gone 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS (8-1 O/U) vs foes with a winning record TY being outscored 26-30 on avg. ARZ HC Whisenhunt is now 2-0 ATS in the playoffs while Reid is 6-1 ATS on the road in the postseason.
The core of the PHI offense remains Donovan McNabb & Brian Westbrook & both went through a trying year. McNabb was benched vs BAL after getting nothing done vs the Ravens #2 D in the 1H. Since then he’s avg’d 238 ypg (63%) with an 11-4 ratio and is 6-1 SU/ATS. Westbrook has been dealing with inj’s & a year after six 100 yd rushing gms he has just 3. PHI’s offense has been boosted by a better receiving unit & 6 players have 30+ rec. Rookie DeSean Jackson leads the team in rec & rec yds & is potent on special teams. Westbrook is 2nd on the team in rec’s as Reid is the most pass dependant coach in the NFL. LY PHI’s offense struggled without TE LJ Smith as he split coverage in the middle of the field. Baskett is the possession WR & Curtis is a speed threat but he missed half the season with inj. PHI’s OL is better suited to pass blocking (27 sks all’d) but the OT’s are very long in the tooth. PHI lost RG Jean-Giles & has been working with Nick Cole the L6W but he has 8 career starts. PHI has been weak at the POA in short ydg situations (ie goal line vs CHI). PHI’s DL has great chemistry starting all 16 TY holding 11 tms to under 88 yds rush (3.0) though they did give up 200+ yds to WAS & NYG. DC Johnson believes in bringing pressure from everywhere & 15 players have at least 1 sk. PHI’s LB’s are fast & flow to the ball well. PHI invested heavily in CB Samuel to give them a very deep secondary & teams have comp just 53% of their passes with a 6.1 ypa with a 19-17 ratio. PHI has our #18 spec tms as DeSean Jackson has cooled a bit after a strong start & David Akers has cost them in several games.
ARZ is a very one dimensional offense relying on Warner to quickly get into a rhythm & set the tempo. He has seven 300 yd passing games and 3 WR’s that have 1,000 yds. Warner has had trouble with physical D’s going 3-7 SU & 2-7-1 ATS as they disrupt the timing of the WR routes. Boldin (missed LW, CS) & Fitzgerald are the best WR tandem with Breaston breaking out as the slot WR. However, the rushing game has been anemic avg just 74 ypg (3.5) & has been held to under 100 yds in 11 games. ARZ benched RB James due to poor production & went with Tim Hightower in the 2H of the year but minus his 109 yd (5.0) game vs STL he has just 290 yds (2.4) on the yr. ARZ has started the same OL for all 16 gms & while they are 11th in sks all’d much of that is due to ARZ’s longer routes. The TE’s are a virtual non-factor in the ARZ system. DC Clancy Pendergast heads up a scheme oriented unit that gave up 414 yds offense in its 4 games prior to SEA. ARZ runs a hybrid 4-3/3-4 system & none of the 3 true DL started all 16 TY. After tallying 21 sks the first 8 ARZ had just 10 over the final 8 partially due to DE LaBoy missing most of the 2H of the season. ARZ has an active LB unit but the run defense slipped in the 4 games prior to SEA allowing 173 yds (4.6). ARZ has also given up the most passing TD’s in the NFL with a 39-20 ratio. ARZ does have a great safety tandem with FS Rolle & SS Wilson but the CB spot is suspect at best. Despite sending Sean Morey to the Pro Bowl TY the Cardinals have our #31 special teams as P Ben Graham has a putrid 32.0 net giving up 13.1 on PR’s.
Philly’s defense has impressed but on the season the only true passing teams they’ve taken on have been DAL (twice) and this ARZ squad on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals went Over in their 1st playoff gm and both teams left numerous points off LW in what should’ve been easy "Over" winners. PHI will also be able to move the ball in these ideal conditions under the playoff experience and leadership of McNabb and Westbrook.
[FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow][FONT=Helvetica-Narrow,Helvetica-Narrow]FORECAST: Cardinals/Eagles OVER 48 RATING: 1*
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